Important posts

A list of the posts where I go beyond recording my reaction to minutiae, and seek to draw an important lesson from what I have observed. Posts which I believe contribute to my learning, and thus possibly to those of readers.

While I believe that all of my posts are worth reading, and recommend that you take the time to read all of them, this collection below contains the most important and consequential posts.

Sept. 2014: Costs of failing to think ‘outside the square’: US military tactics in Vietnam

Sept. 2014: Data, versus Intuition, versus Data + Intuition

Oct. 2014: Getting things right is hard work

Oct. 2014: Avoiding Slothful Induction: take a bow, Tanveer Ahmed

Dec. 2014: Following the consensus v. thinking for oneself: two anecdotes

Dec. 2014: Islamic Terrorism & Slothful Induction – a price paid in blood

Dec. 2014: Close-mindedness, ‘groupthink’ and ‘out group’ stereotyping

May 2015: The Fallacy of Composition – a powerful insight into social dynamics

May 2015: Killing Nemtsov: a flurry of hypotheses, to muddy the waters

May 2015: Applied FAC and Logic Bubble: ‘This ‘X’ is nuts!’

June 2015: Stop Press: Australian Senator thinks it’s OK to machine gun protestors

June 2015: Incentive Maps: Grace Collier and Bao Tong discuss the options and incentives facing people in power

June 2015: Understanding the 2015-16 Australian Budget, using the intellectual tools of the Esau Problem, Moral Hazard, and Public Choice theory

July 2015: ‘The Killing Season’ & ‘Labor in Power’: some thoughts

July 2015: Thoughts on ‘Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief’

Aug. 2015: Quelle disaster: the West’s monumental, easily-avoided and costly miscalculation in Libya

Oct. 2015: The Totalitarian-Fascist Mindset

Oct. 2015: Quality, not quantity

Oct. 2015: The Totalitarian-Fascist Mindset: Stella Morabito on social control

Dec. 2015: Do ya wanna bet?

Dec. 2015: Narrative and Taboo

Jan. 2016: Insights and Narratives

Jan. 2016: Sound reasoning: Laurie Oakes hypothesises his way to a scoop

Jan. 2016: Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators: Apple Inc

Jan. 2016: Narrative and Taboo, VII

Feb. 2016: You can hypothesise anything

Feb. 2016: You can rationalise anything

Feb. 2016: The ‘good news’ story as a manifestation of psychological denial

Mar. 2016: How much more unreality can we bear?

Apr. 2016: Mind-sets, memeplexes and islamic terrorism

May 2016: 65 Martin Place: Asylum for the Insane, or 20-Storey Logic-Bubble?

May 2016: Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Critical Thinking, and Islamic Violence

May 2016: Belief Preservation among economists

May 2016: Hacking at the foundations of one’s society

June 2016: Narrative, Dissent, Taboo, and the Creation of ‘Unknown Knowns’

July 2016: The Cathedral goes ‘va banque’

September 2016: ‘Gertrude, do not drink’

June 2018: Third Form Belief Preservation – Semmelweis Reflex – Question Time, Didsbury Mosque, Douglas Murray and Mark Steyn

June 2018: The Jacobs-Kum Reflex: Belief Preservation as a Socially-Acceptable Form of Insanity

July 2018: Belief Preservation: the EgyptAir, Cologne and Ad Hominem Reflexes, and Slothful Induction

January 2019: The Yellow Vests, Hirschman’s Categories, and Medium-Term Prospects for France and the EU

January 2019: Notes on Orwell’s ‘Notes on Nationalism’

October 2019: Cult Marx Inversion, centre-right collapse, and Bronze Age Pervert