A list of the posts where I go beyond recording my reaction to minutiae, and seek to draw an important lesson from what I have observed. Posts which I believe contribute to my learning, and thus possibly to those of readers.
While I believe that all of my posts are worth reading, and recommend that you take the time to read all of them, this collection below contains the most important and consequential posts.
Sept. 2014: Costs of failing to think ‘outside the square’: US military tactics in Vietnam
Sept. 2014: Data, versus Intuition, versus Data + Intuition
Oct. 2014: Getting things right is hard work
Oct. 2014: Avoiding Slothful Induction: take a bow, Tanveer Ahmed
Dec. 2014: Following the consensus v. thinking for oneself: two anecdotes
Dec. 2014: Islamic Terrorism & Slothful Induction – a price paid in blood
Dec. 2014: Close-mindedness, ‘groupthink’ and ‘out group’ stereotyping
May 2015: The Fallacy of Composition – a powerful insight into social dynamics
May 2015: Killing Nemtsov: a flurry of hypotheses, to muddy the waters
May 2015: Applied FAC and Logic Bubble: ‘This ‘X’ is nuts!’
June 2015: Stop Press: Australian Senator thinks it’s OK to machine gun protestors
June 2015: Incentive Maps: Grace Collier and Bao Tong discuss the options and incentives facing people in power
June 2015: Understanding the 2015-16 Australian Budget, using the intellectual tools of the Esau Problem, Moral Hazard, and Public Choice theory
July 2015: ‘The Killing Season’ & ‘Labor in Power’: some thoughts
July 2015: Thoughts on ‘Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief’
Aug. 2015: Quelle disaster: the West’s monumental, easily-avoided and costly miscalculation in Libya
Oct. 2015: The Totalitarian-Fascist Mindset
Oct. 2015: Quality, not quantity
Oct. 2015: The Totalitarian-Fascist Mindset: Stella Morabito on social control
Dec. 2015: Do ya wanna bet?
Dec. 2015: Narrative and Taboo
Jan. 2016: Insights and Narratives
Jan. 2016: Sound reasoning: Laurie Oakes hypothesises his way to a scoop
Jan. 2016: Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators: Apple Inc
Jan. 2016: Narrative and Taboo, VII
Feb. 2016: You can hypothesise anything
Feb. 2016: You can rationalise anything
Feb. 2016: The ‘good news’ story as a manifestation of psychological denial
Mar. 2016: How much more unreality can we bear?
Apr. 2016: Mind-sets, memeplexes and islamic terrorism
May 2016: 65 Martin Place: Asylum for the Insane, or 20-Storey Logic-Bubble?
May 2016: Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Critical Thinking, and Islamic Violence
May 2016: Belief Preservation among economists
May 2016: Hacking at the foundations of one’s society
June 2016: Narrative, Dissent, Taboo, and the Creation of ‘Unknown Knowns’
July 2016: The Cathedral goes ‘va banque’
September 2016: ‘Gertrude, do not drink’