Category Archives: Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators

Anomalies, Red Flags and Insights – an Example

From the Australian Financial Review, 29-30 July – ‘Nudity, fish and guns in the new age of inflation’: To casual readers, the cover of the June 2009 edition of British Vogue, featuring supermodel Natalia Vodianova in the nude, was a … Continue reading

Posted in Insights, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Sound Reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course | Leave a comment

An inability to learn

From a review of Lynne Olson’s Last Hope Island that I found in the Fin this weekend: In the early evening of March 6, 1942, Lauwers sat in an apartment in The Hague, waiting to begin his scheduled biweekly transmission … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Poor reasoning, Principal-Agent Problems, Problem Solving, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Fundamental Attribution Error: Yanis Varoufakis explains the context in which he acted to an accuser

Yes, I’m talking about Yanis again. Mentioning him in a post from a few days ago caused me to find a few Youtube clips of him speaking, one of which is his address to the Oxford Union on November 30, … Continue reading

Posted in Informal fallacies in reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Mark St Cyr’s Crystal Ball Goes Blood Red

Mark St Cyr puts it out there, in a coherent and plausible argument: Few believe there is a reason for concern that China “might” do something which may upset the current economy as it now stands. I am not one … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Rationalisation, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Belief Preservation among economists

Vox Day interviews academic economist Steve Keen about the problems some economists have adjusting to reality: VOX: Why do you think the mainstream economists failed to learn anything from the 2008 crisis, given the fact that these minor school economists, … Continue reading

Posted in Motivated Reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Paper money approaches its logical end-point

If this report is to be believed, Japan is planning to create, in the near future, a zero-coupon perpetual bond. Value of the Principal to be repaid: zero Value of the coupons to be paid out over the life of the bond: zero. … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Poor reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Absence of evidence …

I read the financial press diligently every day. Mostly I read from the Financial Times, and also from various weblogs commenting on developments in finance and the international economy. What I have deduced from this intensive and extensive reading is that … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Too clever by two standard deviations

From Stephen Bartholomeusz’s column in this weekend’s Oz: The BHP board will have done a lot of head-scratching to understand how they could have ended up in the bind the group finds itself in. Its [earnings?] model was supposed to … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, Poor reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators: Apple Inc

A few weeks ago, this email appeared in my inbox: 

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