Category Archives: Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators

Noticing what’s not there: the quiet

Notice how quiet it has gotten since the North Korean foreign minister came out yesterday, in New York, and stated that, in the eyes of North Korea, Trump’s tweet that Little Rocket Man and his foreign minister won’t be around … Continue reading

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Habituation: Japan and their difficult neighbours

Also seen in the Financial Times on Friday, from Japan, missiles and bad 1980s bands: There are tow leading answers to why the Nikkei 225 Average only dropped 0.9 per cent in intraday trading on Tuesday despite the heightened risk … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Anomalies, Red Flags and Insights – an Example

From the Australian Financial Review, 29-30 July – ‘Nudity, fish and guns in the new age of inflation’: To casual readers, the cover of the June 2009 edition of British Vogue, featuring supermodel Natalia Vodianova in the nude, was a … Continue reading

Posted in Insights, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Sound Reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course | Leave a comment

An inability to learn

From a review of Lynne Olson’s Last Hope Island that I found in the Fin this weekend: In the early evening of March 6, 1942, Lauwers sat in an apartment in The Hague, waiting to begin his scheduled biweekly transmission … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Poor reasoning, Principal-Agent Problems, Problem Solving, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Fundamental Attribution Error: Yanis Varoufakis explains the context in which he acted to an accuser

Yes, I’m talking about Yanis again. Mentioning him in a post from a few days ago caused me to find a few Youtube clips of him speaking, one of which is his address to the Oxford Union on November 30, … Continue reading

Posted in Informal fallacies in reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Mark St Cyr’s Crystal Ball Goes Blood Red

Mark St Cyr puts it out there, in a coherent and plausible argument: Few believe there is a reason for concern that China “might” do something which may upset the current economy as it now stands. I am not one … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Rationalisation, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Belief Preservation among economists

Vox Day interviews academic economist Steve Keen about the problems some economists have adjusting to reality: VOX: Why do you think the mainstream economists failed to learn anything from the 2008 crisis, given the fact that these minor school economists, … Continue reading

Posted in Motivated Reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Paper money approaches its logical end-point

If this report is to be believed, Japan is planning to create, in the near future, a zero-coupon perpetual bond. Value of the Principal to be repaid: zero Value of the coupons to be paid out over the life of the bond: zero. … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Poor reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Absence of evidence …

I read the financial press diligently every day. Mostly I read from the Financial Times, and also from various weblogs commenting on developments in finance and the international economy. What I have deduced from this intensive and extensive reading is that … Continue reading

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Too clever by two standard deviations

From Stephen Bartholomeusz’s column in this weekend’s Oz: The BHP board will have done a lot of head-scratching to understand how they could have ended up in the bind the group finds itself in. Its [earnings?] model was supposed to … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, Poor reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment