Category Archives: Sound Reasoning

‘Gertrude, do not drink’: First step

September last year: What Congress’ actions do is place pressure on the Saudis to ‘fess up. The Saudis are weak, and completely reliant on the US for their existence. If the US turns on them – as Congress is doing, … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Hypotheses, Nullius in verba, Sound Reasoning, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

‘Gertrude, do not drink’: White House overrides Congress re. Saudi involvement in September 11

More high-relevance news from the magnificent insurgent finance blog Zerohedge: It has been a day of Friday afternoon surprises: just one hour after Ted Cruz pretended to endorse Donald Trump when he really meant don’t vote for Hillary, president Obama … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Hypotheses, Nullius in verba, Sound Reasoning, The Suicide of the West | 1 Comment

Trump Presidency: Non-Intuitive Risk Analysis

An interesting approach to analysing the possible risks of a Trump presidency. The value lies not in the risk analysis itself – I don’t agree with some of Adams’ conclusions – but in the novel, non-intuitive way of thinking about risks, and about … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Critical Thinking, and Islamic Violence

Browsing lazily through last Saturday’s Australian Financial Review I came across an interview with Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who, for having the temerity to have pointed out the obvious about islam, publicly and vociferously, is now forced to live surrounded by security guards. Towards the … Continue reading

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An interesting thought

This insight from Charles Hugh-Smith quite struck me when I read it. Presented with no comment, make of it what you please: We all want to wallow in the false security of one form of the old Soviet Union or … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Good Thinking, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Mossack Fonseca: who and why?

No doubt there’s going to be a lot of press coverage of the disclosures arising from the Mossack Fonseca document leak. However, there are two important questions that I don’t think will ever be answered – mostly because I suspect … Continue reading

Posted in Good Thinking, Nullius in verba, Problem Solving, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Sound Reasoning: Crispin Odey on the economy, financial markets and macro policy

Just fresh from reading this analysis, from Crispin Odey of Odey Asset Management, I came straight here to share it with you, and enter it into my ‘Sound Reasoning’ category. This may reflect prejudice on my part: as I wrote … Continue reading

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David Stockman lets rip

Just. Superb. Update: and again.

Posted in Good Thinking, Prize for True Wit, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Sound reasoning: Laurie Oakes hypothesises his way to a scoop

The story about Laurie Oakes’ fifty years’ of political reporting, which appeared in the Weekend Oz of January 9-10, gives us a story of successful hypothesising to solve a mystery: The Whitlam government’s plan to appoint Democratic Labor Party senator Vince … Continue reading

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The Importance of Epistemic Rationality

Epistemic Rationality is the ability to gain and hold accurate beliefs about the world around us. It is crucial for being able to make informed decisions that have as high a probability as possible of improving one’s situation. The importance … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Hypotheses, Insights, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment