Category Archives: Problems with perception intuition and judgement

Confirmation bias: reporting the story, or the story as one sees it?

In a letter to the Financial Times of July 6, Martin Staniforth engages in critical thinking and asks the right questions: Sir, Peter Geiger (Letters, July 3) castigates public servants for relying on expert advice. However he seems only too … Continue reading

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Confirmation bias: Zhou Enlai’s quip about the French Revolution

From a letter to the Financial Times by Jonathan Fenby, Chairman of China Research at TS Lombard: Sir, The quip from Zhou Enlai that it was “too early to tell about the impact of the French Revolution, cited by Lex … Continue reading

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Habituation: Japan and their difficult neighbours

Also seen in the Financial Times on Friday, from Japan, missiles and bad 1980s bands: There are tow leading answers to why the Nikkei 225 Average only dropped 0.9 per cent in intraday trading on Tuesday despite the heightened risk … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Affect Heuristic and Investing

Spotted in the Financial Times on Friday, in an article about Northern Rock [Martin Arnold, ‘Northern Rock investors accuse Treasury of profiting from bailout’, Friday, September 4, 2017]: Many small shareholders lost their life savings when  Northern Rock was nationalised. … Continue reading

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An inability to learn

From a review of Lynne Olson’s Last Hope Island that I found in the Fin this weekend: In the early evening of March 6, 1942, Lauwers sat in an apartment in The Hague, waiting to begin his scheduled biweekly transmission … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Poor reasoning, Principal-Agent Problems, Problem Solving, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Nietzschean ‘Ressentiment’, 21st century style

Ressentiment is a reassignment of the pain that accompanies a sense of one’s own inferiority/failure onto an external scapegoat. The ego creates the illusion of an enemy, a cause that can be “blamed” for one’s own inferiority/failure. Thus, one was thwarted … Continue reading

Posted in Cult-Marx Inversion, Democracy and freedom of mind, Freedom of speech, Groupthink, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Narrative and Taboo, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Rationalisation, Straw Men, The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

‘Unconscious Bias’: voodoo for the industrial age

Reading through the Weekend Fin I couldn’t help but notice this story about a bloke called Angus Aitken who has got himself on the wrong side of the Thought Police:

Posted in Groupthink, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Narrative and Taboo, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

I’m not sure how to explain this

From the governor of the central bank of Lithuania: “Markets say the ECB is done, their box is empty,” Vasiliauskas, who heads Lithuania’s central bank. “But we are magic people. Each time we take something and give to the markets — … Continue reading

Posted in Problems with perception intuition and judgement, The Mind & Society | 1 Comment

You can hypothesise anything

I woke up this morning to this report at Investment Research Dynamics: On December 23, 2015 the Federal Reserve’s Capital Account plunged by 65% – $19 billion – when the Surplus Capital Account dropped by that amount … The 65% plunge … Continue reading

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Feminism and Islam: Cognitive dissonance

Sterling insight, superbly expressed, from Phillip Mark McGough at Quillette: As a general point, it really is astonishing the extent to which the feminist left (in fact, the left in general) is prepared to veto entire chapters of its own … Continue reading

Posted in Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Motivated Reasoning, Prize for True Wit, Problems with perception intuition and judgement | Leave a comment