Category Archives: intuition and judgment

Foresight – Enoch Powell

A letter to the Financial Times, from Mr Julian Boswall, 20 June, 2017: Sir, It is not correct that the people in Britain were mendaciously told in 1975 that the common market had “no political agenda” (Letters, June 16). Enoch … Continue reading

Posted in Benefits, Critical Thinking, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Insights, intuition and judgment, Narrative and Taboo, Sound Reasoning, The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Anomalies, Red Flags and Insights – an Example

From the Australian Financial Review, 29-30 July – ‘Nudity, fish and guns in the new age of inflation’: To casual readers, the cover of the June 2009 edition of British Vogue, featuring supermodel Natalia Vodianova in the nude, was a … Continue reading

Posted in Insights, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Sound Reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course | Leave a comment

Multiple intelligences, multiple competencies

About two months into the new job, and getting to know my colleagues, tasks, managers and obligations. One thing I’ve had presented to me in this role is senior managers and executives who are capable in one area, or one competency, but … Continue reading

Posted in Good Thinking, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Poor reasoning | Leave a comment

Mark St Cyr’s Crystal Ball Goes Blood Red

Mark St Cyr puts it out there, in a coherent and plausible argument: Few believe there is a reason for concern that China “might” do something which may upset the current economy as it now stands. I am not one … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Rationalisation, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Trump Presidency: Non-Intuitive Risk Analysis

An interesting approach to analysing the possible risks of a Trump presidency. The value lies not in the risk analysis itself – I don’t agree with some of Adams’ conclusions – but in the novel, non-intuitive way of thinking about risks, and about … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

The Importance of Epistemic Rationality

Epistemic Rationality is the ability to gain and hold accurate beliefs about the world around us. It is crucial for being able to make informed decisions that have as high a probability as possible of improving one’s situation. The importance … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Hypotheses, Insights, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Bob Woodward on the Invasion of Iraq – didactic passages

I have recently worked my way through US journalist Bob Woodward’s 2006 book State of Denial: Bush at War, Part III. Not having read parts I and II, I wasn’t sure at first what to expect. However, it is a great read, composed … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Good Thinking, Groupthink, Hypotheses, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Motivated Reasoning, Nullius in verba, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Sound Reasoning | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

‘The Killing Season’ & ‘Labor in Power’: some thoughts

Recently, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation broadcast a series, The Killing Season, containing interviews with the main actors of the Labor Party’s governments from November 2007 through September 2013. As luck would have it, browsing through the DVD collection at my local … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Motivated Reasoning | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment