Category Archives: Instrumental Rationality

The end of Kita Cho-sen

My guess is that Trump has realised that, at some time, he or his successor will have to do something, and that it only gets worse with every day that passes, so he might as well go as soon as possible. … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Instrumental Rationality | 2 Comments

The Strategic Consequences of Donald Trump’s Limbic System

Syrian air force bombs a munitions dump belonging to insurgents. Aerosol anti-personnel chemicals are released into the surrounding atmosphere, and drift towards a town in which people, including numerous children, reside. The chemicals adversely affect the people’s health. A camera-team … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Esau Problem, Instrumental Rationality, Poor reasoning, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

I don’t know what to say anymore (updated, 26/10)

From the Nation, via Zerohedge: As the two nuclear powers sabre-rattle over conflicts within Syria, and to some extent, over the Ukrainian crisis, asking these questions to determine who will pull the trigger first has become more paramount than it … Continue reading

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Mark St Cyr’s Crystal Ball Goes Blood Red

Mark St Cyr puts it out there, in a coherent and plausible argument: Few believe there is a reason for concern that China “might” do something which may upset the current economy as it now stands. I am not one … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Rationalisation, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Trump Presidency: Non-Intuitive Risk Analysis

An interesting approach to analysing the possible risks of a Trump presidency. The value lies not in the risk analysis itself – I don’t agree with some of Adams’ conclusions – but in the novel, non-intuitive way of thinking about risks, and about … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Critical Thinking, and Islamic Violence

Browsing lazily through last Saturday’s Australian Financial Review I came across an interview with Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who, for having the temerity to have pointed out the obvious about islam, publicly and vociferously, is now forced to live surrounded by security guards. Towards the … Continue reading

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Reasoning, incipient and primitive

Two occurrences this past week caused me to reflect on the evolution of reasoning. 

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Too clever by two standard deviations

From Stephen Bartholomeusz’s column in this weekend’s Oz: The BHP board will have done a lot of head-scratching to understand how they could have ended up in the bind the group finds itself in. Its [earnings?] model was supposed to … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Instrumental Rationality, Poor reasoning, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Knowledge is supposed to be the hand-maiden to informed action

The aim of epistemic rationality is not knowledge for its own sake, but knowledge gained in the service of instrumental rationality. We seek as accurate a view of the world around us as possible, so as we can make the best … Continue reading

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