Category Archives: Hypotheses

‘Gertrude, do not drink’: First step

September last year: What Congress’ actions do is place pressure on the Saudis to ‘fess up. The Saudis are weak, and completely reliant on the US for their existence. If the US turns on them – as Congress is doing, … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Hypotheses, Nullius in verba, Sound Reasoning, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

‘Gertrude, do not drink’: White House overrides Congress re. Saudi involvement in September 11

More high-relevance news from the magnificent insurgent finance blog Zerohedge: It has been a day of Friday afternoon surprises: just one hour after Ted Cruz pretended to endorse Donald Trump when he really meant don’t vote for Hillary, president Obama … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Hypotheses, Nullius in verba, Sound Reasoning, The Suicide of the West | 1 Comment

In case you hadn’t noticed …

Insights can sometimes spring up in the most unlikely places: Speaking of scapegoats, I am sure you saw the Senate vote last week that “sovereigns” (think Saudi Arabia) can be sued civilly. The finger has been pointed at the Saudis … Continue reading

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‘Cossack’ Fonseca? Hypothesising about who is behind the MF leak

Mysteries generate hypotheses. And the latest hypothesis generated to explain the mystery surrounding the who and why of the Mossack Fonseca document leak is this tasty treat, produced for us by Clifford Gaddy of the Brookings Institution (and who happens to work … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Hypotheses | Leave a comment

You can hypothesise anything

I woke up this morning to this report at Investment Research Dynamics: On December 23, 2015 the Federal Reserve’s Capital Account plunged by 65% – $19 billion – when the Surplus Capital Account dropped by that amount … The 65% plunge … Continue reading

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Sound reasoning: Laurie Oakes hypothesises his way to a scoop

The story about Laurie Oakes’ fifty years’ of political reporting, which appeared in the Weekend Oz of January 9-10, gives us a story of successful hypothesising to solve a mystery: The Whitlam government’s plan to appoint Democratic Labor Party senator Vince … Continue reading

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The Importance of Epistemic Rationality

Epistemic Rationality is the ability to gain and hold accurate beliefs about the world around us. It is crucial for being able to make informed decisions that have as high a probability as possible of improving one’s situation. The importance … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Hypotheses, Insights, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Do ya wanna bet?

Recently I had the opportunity to re-visit the 2007 film The Great Global Warming Swindle. Well worth watching in and of itself, and in among all the important material for someone interested in investigating and propagating sound reasoning, was this section: Narrator: In the late 1980s, … Continue reading

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Bob Woodward on the Invasion of Iraq – didactic passages

I have recently worked my way through US journalist Bob Woodward’s 2006 book State of Denial: Bush at War, Part III. Not having read parts I and II, I wasn’t sure at first what to expect. However, it is a great read, composed … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Good Thinking, Groupthink, Hypotheses, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Motivated Reasoning, Nullius in verba, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Sound Reasoning | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

MH370: alternative theory dismissed by Maldives Civil Aviation Authority

On April 7, I wrote an entry about the disappearance of MH370, and the possibility that, rather than having crashed in the tempestuous waters of the Southern Indian Ocean, it may have come down somewhere near the Maldives. The Weekend … Continue reading

Posted in ACH, Good Thinking, Hypotheses, Problem Solving | Tagged | Leave a comment