Category Archives: Good Thinking

Leftist’s Action, Liberty’s Reaction

I’ve been observing developments on the left-side fringes of US politics with a growing sense of anxiety, driven in equal parts by bewilderment and deep concern. The most recent election has removed the masking slogans of tolerance, harmony and diversity, … Continue reading

Posted in Cult-Marx Inversion, Democracy and freedom of mind, Epistemic Rationality, Freedom of speech, Good Thinking, Groupthink, Narrative and Taboo, The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | 1 Comment

Multiple intelligences, multiple competencies

About two months into the new job, and getting to know my colleagues, tasks, managers and obligations. One thing I’ve had presented to me in this role is senior managers and executives who are capable in one area, or one competency, but … Continue reading

Posted in Good Thinking, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Poor reasoning | Leave a comment

Zerohedge ‘base rates’ Black Lives Matter

Base rates! Base rates! You can’t understand a phenomenon until you look at the base rates! You’re a slave to your impulses unless you look at the base rates! Which Zerohedge gets: By the way, in all the time since ‘Black … Continue reading

Posted in Base Rates, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Narrative and Taboo, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Trump Presidency: Non-Intuitive Risk Analysis

An interesting approach to analysing the possible risks of a Trump presidency. The value lies not in the risk analysis itself – I don’t agree with some of Adams’ conclusions – but in the novel, non-intuitive way of thinking about risks, and about … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Critical Thinking, and Islamic Violence

Browsing lazily through last Saturday’s Australian Financial Review I came across an interview with Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who, for having the temerity to have pointed out the obvious about islam, publicly and vociferously, is now forced to live surrounded by security guards. Towards the … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Instrumental Rationality, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

An interesting thought

This insight from Charles Hugh-Smith quite struck me when I read it. Presented with no comment, make of it what you please: We all want to wallow in the false security of one form of the old Soviet Union or … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, Good Thinking, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Mossack Fonseca: who and why?

No doubt there’s going to be a lot of press coverage of the disclosures arising from the Mossack Fonseca document leak. However, there are two important questions that I don’t think will ever be answered – mostly because I suspect … Continue reading

Posted in Good Thinking, Nullius in verba, Problem Solving, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Sound Reasoning: Crispin Odey on the economy, financial markets and macro policy

Just fresh from reading this analysis, from Crispin Odey of Odey Asset Management, I came straight here to share it with you, and enter it into my ‘Sound Reasoning’ category. This may reflect prejudice on my part: as I wrote … Continue reading

Posted in Good Thinking, Sound Reasoning, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

David Stockman lets rip

Just. Superb. Update: and again.

Posted in Good Thinking, Prize for True Wit, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

Sound reasoning: Laurie Oakes hypothesises his way to a scoop

The story about Laurie Oakes’ fifty years’ of political reporting, which appeared in the Weekend Oz of January 9-10, gives us a story of successful hypothesising to solve a mystery: The Whitlam government’s plan to appoint Democratic Labor Party senator Vince … Continue reading

Posted in Good Thinking, Hypotheses, Sound Reasoning, Uncategorized | Leave a comment