Category Archives: Decision-making

An inability to learn

From a review of Lynne Olson’s Last Hope Island that I found in the Fin this weekend: In the early evening of March 6, 1942, Lauwers sat in an apartment in The Hague, waiting to begin his scheduled biweekly transmission … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Poor reasoning, Principal-Agent Problems, Problem Solving, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, Thinking Course, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Strategic Consequences of Donald Trump’s Limbic System

Syrian air force bombs a munitions dump belonging to insurgents. Aerosol anti-personnel chemicals are released into the surrounding atmosphere, and drift towards a town in which people, including numerous children, reside. The chemicals adversely affect the people’s health. A camera-team … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Esau Problem, Instrumental Rationality, Poor reasoning, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Thoughts on statements arising in Nisbett’s ‘Mindware’

While relaxing on a superb and inspirational three-week holiday in Japan … … I began reading through a book that I’d purchased in January of this year, which I thought would provide some useful insights for my course – Mindware, by professor of psychology … Continue reading

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Trump Presidency: Non-Intuitive Risk Analysis

An interesting approach to analysing the possible risks of a Trump presidency. The value lies not in the risk analysis itself – I don’t agree with some of Adams’ conclusions – but in the novel, non-intuitive way of thinking about risks, and about … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Epistemic Rationality, Good Thinking, Instrumental Rationality, intuition and judgment, Reasoning, Sound Reasoning | Leave a comment

The Iraq invasion in retrospect: neo-cons in their own words

While doing research for an essay that I am writing for the blog, I came across this January 2007 piece, written by David Rose for Vanity Fair, in which he interviews the US ‘neo cons’ and asks them ‘What went wrong?’ As … Continue reading

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The Horrendous NBN

Catching up on my reading, and on material which I have wanted to write a post about after seeing it, I finally found these couple of pieces, from the Fin Review of June 12 this year, regarding the National Broadband Network. First, … Continue reading

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Sound reasoning: Henry Ergas channels WK Hancock

Weekend Oz, May 9-10, p.15: The central role of fairness in Australian politics is hardly new. It could, on the contrary, be viewed as an enduring feature of this country’s political system. After all, WK Hancock’s Australia, which famously summarised the … Continue reading

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A follow up to the ‘Bob Woodward’ post – the nightmare of post-invasion Iraq

Three weeks ago I wrote about the disastrous decision-making in the Bush administration which led to the invasion of Iraq, the removal of its functioning government, and the failed occupation of the country. The subsequent decision to leave the country … Continue reading

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Migration into Europe

The current extraordinary scenes emanating from Europe, of people from the Middle East with a feeling of entitlement to western welfare cheques barging their way into developed countries and shouting ‘Allahu akbar!’ and attacking domestic police when frustrated, are quite … Continue reading

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Bob Woodward on the Invasion of Iraq – didactic passages

I have recently worked my way through US journalist Bob Woodward’s 2006 book State of Denial: Bush at War, Part III. Not having read parts I and II, I wasn’t sure at first what to expect. However, it is a great read, composed … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Good Thinking, Groupthink, Hypotheses, intuition and judgment, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Motivated Reasoning, Nullius in verba, Problems with perception intuition and judgement, Sound Reasoning | Tagged , , | 1 Comment