Author Archives: Stebbing Heuer

About Stebbing Heuer

A person interested in exploring human perception, reasoning, judgement and deciding, and in promoting clear, effective thinking and the making of good decisions.

Belief Preservation: the EgyptAir, Cologne and Ad Hominem Reflexes, and Slothful Induction

Last month I wrote about what I called the Jacobs-Kum Reflex. Quite proud of myself for having given a name to a common phenomenon, I started thinking about other manifestations of Third-Form Belief Preservation to which I could give names. … Continue reading

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1. Provocation. 2. Spasm [you are here]. [now for] 3. Reaction.

I wrote earlier – almost two years ago, now – about how the US and the US-aligned Australian elites would respond to China’s prolonged and deliberate slow-burn infiltration of Australia’s institutions and power centres. Here are some of the responses: … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

The Rationality Project: my part in its success

Slate Star Codex has a short piece about the role of blogging in the rationality project. I’m not myself a formal member of the project – I live too far away, the people involved don’t know me and I don’t … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam | Leave a comment

The Mad Left turns violent

A concerning article by Michael Snyder at the Economic Collapse blog: I don’t think that most conservatives really understand what is happening. These radical leftists are ready to put their lives on the line.  They are entirely convinced that Donald Trump … Continue reading

Posted in The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Fake News: Sharyl Attkisson’s research

A final trip down memory lane for the day: I wrote, after the 2016 US election, about the claims of Fake News that the left were making at the time. This week, I saw from this post that US journalist … Continue reading

Posted in Democracy and freedom of mind, Epistemic Rationality, Freedom of speech, Narrative and Taboo, Privileges Rents and Vested Interests, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

Data and Intuition, SA&TI: from Matt Levine’s Money Stuff column

Very early in the life of this blog, I wrote this post about the relationship between data and intuition. I though that this post from Matt Levine, in his Bloomberg Money Stuff column on Thursday, discusses how this relationship is … Continue reading

Posted in Decision-making, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators | Leave a comment

Questioning Assumptions: a Good Example

A good example of questioning assumptions, from Cliff Asness at AQR Capital Management. I once mapped future returns against the level of the CAPE measure and came up with the same findings as AQR. Didn’t correct for the overlapping observations … Continue reading

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The Jacobs-Kum Reflex: Belief Preservation as a Socially-Acceptable Form of Insanity

I had cause to re-visit this post yesterday. Two-and-a-bit years on, I found that it needed some corrections – I must have been in something of a rush when I put it together. But I also found it interesting to … Continue reading

Posted in Belief Preservation, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | 1 Comment

Why worry? ‘Tomorrow never comes’, right?

An interesting article about the current state of the US Social Security Fund. The money is running out. The rate at which it runs out will only accelerate from here. It is baked into the cake. The easiest way for … Continue reading

Posted in Esau Problem, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Out-group shaming, and SA-TI and the process of changing one’s mind: Cassie Jaye’s TED Talk

Some interesting anecdotes from Cassie Jaye, producer of the film The Red Pill, given at her TED Talk in Marin County, California, in October last year: First: out-group shaming, and the demonisation not only of those on the outside of … Continue reading

Posted in Belief Preservation, Groupthink, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, Narrative and Taboo, Strat. Assumptions v. Tac. Indicators, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment