Author Archives: Stebbing Heuer

About Stebbing Heuer

A person interested in exploring human perception, reasoning, judgement and deciding, and in promoting clear, effective thinking and the making of good decisions.


First, read this transcript of Peter Atwater’s words to Adventures in Finance late last year: Voter confidence in congress at 12 per cent. I think the president’s latest approval ratings put confidence in him at the mid-upper-30s. And then you … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Interesting excerpts

From my recent reading, which I had time to go through on a long, long, uncomfortable and vexing – CX, what a disappointment, never again – flight from one side of the world to the other. First, some paras from … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, The Mind & Society | Leave a comment

The End of Kita Cho-sen, part II

The latest from Jim Rickards: The U.S. hopes to mitigate the collateral damage with a fearsome combination of cyber-warfare, psychological warfare, special operations, massive bombing, and limited air and amphibious invasion. Either Jim is completely delusional, or key policy-makers have … Continue reading

Posted in Epistemic Rationality, Flotsam and Jetsam | Leave a comment

Israel-Palestine: an insight

Just a quick write-up of a comment, by WenellMurray, on an FT interview with Daniel Ellsberg – discoverer of the Ellsberg Paradox, exposer of the Pentagon Papers, and author of the superb book Secrets (a book¬†which I highly recommend). I … Continue reading

Posted in Fallacy of the Undistributed Middle, Flotsam and Jetsam | Leave a comment

WYSIATI: President Trump’s Cognitive Health

Many years ago, I don’t know exactly when but either back in the nineties or in the early noughties, back before the show’s relentless left-wing bias became too much for me, I listened to a programme of Philip Adams’ ABC … Continue reading

Posted in Problems with perception intuition and judgement | Leave a comment

Europeans shaping the Middle East: further information about the Balfour Declaration

Back in August, I wrote a piece about the role that Europeans, in particular Mark Sykes and Arthur Balfour, played in shaping the Middle East as it is today. In response to an odd article on the Balfour Declaration by … Continue reading

Posted in Flotsam and Jetsam, The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

The Curse of Cassandra: Being Early is the Same as Being Wrong

Around three years ago, Yanis Varoufakis was elected to the Greek parliament and selected to be the new government’s finance minister. He came to the job with bold ideas about rescuing Greece from its terrible financial predicament, among which was … Continue reading

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Closed-Mindedness Leading to Extreme Beliefs: Homicidal Cult-Marx Nuttery

Society is progressing broadly in a way that I have long feared. You know what’s next. It will just get worse when people realise that the money has run out and there isn’t anything left to spend on ‘social programmes’, … Continue reading

Posted in Cult-Marx Inversion, Mind-sets and Logic-Bubbles, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Sound reasoning: two recent examples

Three recent examples of sound reasoning that I would like to bring to your attention. The first is a speech to the Global Warming Policy Foundation by the former Prime Minister of Australia, Tony Abbott, delivered in London this last … Continue reading

Posted in Critical Thinking, Cult-Marx Inversion, Epistemic Rationality, Flotsam and Jetsam, Goal Rationality, Good Thinking, Groupthink, Narrative and Taboo, Principal-Agent Problems, The Mind & Society, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment

Down The Memory Hole

In putting my course together, I’ve arrived at the section devoted to non sequiturs and, in looking for examples of utterly, mind-meltingly idiotic statements, I remembered a statement by Barack Obama, in response to yet another atrocity carried out in … Continue reading

Posted in Informal fallacies in reasoning, The Suicide of the West | Leave a comment