For my work, I have to pay attention to world events, and report on developments that I believe will have significant material impacts on the status quo – events, behaviours and developments that will shift the state of the world from where it is now, to some other state.
Since the beginning of the crisis in Europe in 2010, and particularly in Greece, I’ve noted for my clients that:
- the European elites are betting that the economic situation will improve before the social consequences of the economic situation become unbearable; and
- this was going to be a losing bet, as the economic problems in Europe are structural and the situation will not improve.
It has taken a long time. Much longer than I thought it would, thanks in equal parts I think to the Greeks’ being civilised people and their fear of the chaos and repression of the past. But, for me, this report is a signpost that the social situation is finally starting to break down significantly.
If that assessment is right, you can throw your economic and financial projections out the window – not just for Greece, not just for Europe, but for the whole world.
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