Costs of poor forecasting: US intelligence agencies’ failure to foresee al-Qa’ida’s presence in Iraq

A quotation from former US National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley from Greg Sheridan’s column in the Weekend Oz of November 1 just passed:

We paid a high price, and the Iraqis paid a high price, in the violence that followed the invasion [by US forces in March 2003], largely because we failed to foresee that in the aftermath of the fall of Saddam Hussein, al-Qa’ida would choose to confront us in Iraq.

For a lavishly-resourced intelligence agency that is engaged in a long battle with al-Qa’ida, that is an appalling and unforgiveable error.


About Stebbing Heuer

A person interested in exploring human perception, reasoning, judgement and deciding, and in promoting clear, effective thinking and the making of good decisions.
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